This Week in Weather — October 18, 2026

Rearview

North Carolina absorbed the week's most concentrated tornado activity on the afternoon of October 11. Between roughly 10:14 a.m. and 1:38 p.m. EDT, SPC preliminary reports logged tornado touchdowns across Montgomery, Cumberland, Chatham, Columbus, Wake, Johnston, Pender, Sampson, and Duplin counties. The NWS Raleigh office confirmed an EF-2 near Wallace in Duplin County — peak winds estimated at 115–125 mph, path length 24.43 miles, width approximately 150 yards. A separate EF-2 touched down near Bonnie Doone in Cumberland County with a peak wind survey of 115 mph along a short quarter-mile section near a Walmart and Sam's Club on the south side of Fayetteville. Shorter-track EF-1s were confirmed near Carpenter in Wake County, Linden in Cumberland County, and Jordan Lake in Chatham County. The preliminary SPC log records 20 tornado reports on October 11 alone, all of them in North Carolina — 56 of the 297 total reports across the week's coverage came from that state.

Justin Hobson / Wikimedia

The broader warning count for the October 11–18 interval reached 363 polygon warnings across all five tracked types: 201 severe thunderstorm, 78 flash flood, 40 tornado, 43 marine, and 1 extreme wind. A second tornado-warning cluster appeared October 14–15, with the WFO Lubbock office issuing four tornado warnings between roughly 5:06 p.m. and 6:28 p.m. CDT on October 14 across Garza, Kent, Dickens, Stonewall, and King counties in the Texas South Plains. The WFO Norman office followed with two tornado warnings in Tillman County, Oklahoma and adjacent Wichita and Wilbarger counties in Texas just after 8:16 p.m. CDT. WFO Indianapolis then issued two tornado warnings in Knox and Daviess counties, Indiana around 7:07 p.m. CDT on October 15.

Total SPC preliminary reports across the interval reached 297, led by 247 wind reports and 27 tornado reports. Missouri led all states with 93 reports; North Carolina was second at 56.

On the seismic side, 114 M4.5-or-greater earthquakes were recorded globally during the interval. The largest among available observations was a M6.9 at 135 km depth, 76 km northeast of Ozernovskiy on the Kamchatka Peninsula, at 3:35 a.m. UTC on October 16. Two M6.7–6.8 events struck the central Mid-Atlantic Ridge on October 13 — the M6.8 at 12:23 UTC carried a tsunami flag, though the remote mid-ocean location limits coastal exposure. A M6.1 at shallow depth (11 km) struck 17 km west of Río Grande, Panama on October 12.

U.S. Navy / MC3 Alexander Tidd

Geomagnetic activity remained quiet through most of the interval. The peak observed Kp among available three-hour blocks was 3.67, recorded at 18:00 UTC on October 16 — well below the Kp 5 threshold for even minor storm classification. An M1.4 solar flare was recorded at 15:42 UTC on October 16; subsequent Kp readings remained below the Kp 5 threshold for a minor storm.

NASA SDO

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Roadmap

Point forecasts below cover October 18–24. All temperatures are °F; precipitation in inches. These are single-point model outputs and do not describe conditions across entire regions.

Northeast (New York City, 40.71°N / 74.00°W): Dry through the full seven-day window. Highs range from 56°F on October 18 to a peak of 68°F on October 20, then settle back toward the mid-50s by October 24. No precipitation probability exceeds 10% on any day. Overnight lows stay in the upper 30s early in the period, rising to the mid-40s by week's end.

Southeast (Atlanta, 33.75°N / 84.39°W): Also dry across all seven days. Highs climb from 65°F on October 18 to 77°F by October 22, with lows running in the mid-40s early and the upper 50s later in the week. No precipitation is modeled on any day.

Midwest (Chicago, 41.88°N / 87.63°W): Dry through October 24, though fog is indicated on October 20 (WMO code 45). Highs climb from 61°F on October 18 to a peak of 70°F on October 24. Precipitation probability does not exceed 1% on any day.

Mountain West (Denver, 39.74°N / 104.99°W): The driest stretch runs October 18–23, with highs in the low-to-mid 70s and precipitation probability at or below 9%. October 24 introduces the first meaningful signal: 0.14 inches of modeled precipitation with a 28% probability and a drizzle weather code (WMO 53). Overnight lows warm notably through the period, from 41°F on October 18 to 63°F on October 23.

Pacific (San Francisco, 37.77°N / 122.42°W): October 18 stands out — a high of 79°F with a fog code (WMO 45) before a sharp drop to 62°F on October 19. The most significant precipitation signal in this forecast set falls on October 21: 0.40 inches modeled with a 56% probability and a shower code (WMO 81). Probability drops to 40% on October 22 with no accumulation modeled, then clears through October 24.

South Plains (Dallas, 32.78°N / 96.80°W): Consistently warm and dry. Highs rise from 71°F on October 18 to 85°F by October 23, with overnight lows climbing from 50°F to 69°F across the same span. No precipitation is modeled on any day.

London (51.50°N / 0.13°W): The wettest forecast in this set. Rain is expected on October 18 (0.17 in, 88% probability), October 20 (0.54 in, 78%), October 21 (0.24 in, 50%), October 22 (0.06 in, 76%), and October 23 (0.63 in, 87%). Only October 24 shows a meaningful break, with probability falling to 46% and no accumulation modeled. Highs stay between 54°F and 57°F throughout.

Tokyo (35.68°N / 139.69°E): Warm early — highs of 74–78°F October 18–21 — with a notable precipitation event on October 19 (0.71 in, 10% probability flag notwithstanding, WMO code 63 indicates moderate rain). October 24 carries the highest precipitation signal: 0.90 inches with an 81% probability and a shower code (WMO 81).

Sydney (33.87°S / 151.21°E): Spring conditions, with highs climbing from 68°F on October 18 to 84°F on October 24. Scattered light precipitation is modeled most days, peaking at 0.24 inches on October 22 (73% probability). The period ends warm and partly cloudy.

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Looking Ahead

• San Francisco's October 21 precipitation signal — 0.40 inches at 56% probability — is worth tracking for the Bay Area's first meaningful rain of the season; check updated model runs Monday and Tuesday for confidence trends.
• The M6.8 Mid-Atlantic Ridge event on October 13 carried a tsunami flag; review PTWC post-event communications if you work in coastal emergency management, as preliminary tsunami flags on remote ridge events are often canceled but warrant documentation.
• The South Plains tornado warning cluster on October 14–15 and the North Carolina outbreak on October 11 both occurred during what is historically a secondary peak in the Southern Plains severe weather calendar — the October window warrants the same operational awareness as spring.

Source coverage

Reporting interval: 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z (end exclusive). Counts and peaks describe only the observations and intervals listed below. Missing data is unknown, never zero. Forecasts are point forecasts for the named cities.

• IEM polygon warnings issued (TO/SV/FF/MA/EW.W only): complete. 1/1 archive queries (unique warning events). Observations: 2026-10-11T12:33:00.000Z to 2026-10-18T09:04:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:15.675Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-11: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-11T12:15:00.000Z to 2026-10-12T01:45:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-12T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:15.386Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-12: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-13T03:53:00.000Z to 2026-10-13T03:53:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-12T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:15.516Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-13: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-13T21:40:00.000Z to 2026-10-14T03:03:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-13T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:15.731Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-14: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-14T18:57:00.000Z to 2026-10-15T04:18:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-14T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.021Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-15: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-15T23:01:00.000Z to 2026-10-15T23:26:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-15T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.158Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-16: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-16T16:17:00.000Z to 2026-10-16T22:55:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.438Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-17: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Requested: 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.727Z.
• NOAA SWPC planetary Kp: complete. 56/56 three-hour blocks. Observations: 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-18T09:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:15.376Z.
• NOAA GOES primary 0.1–0.8 nm X-ray flux: partial. 9869/10080 one-minute samples. Observations: 2026-10-11T15:28:00.000Z to 2026-10-18T11:59:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:15.394Z. Missing 211 of 10080 expected intervals; peak is only for observed coverage.
• USGS significant (significance > 600) earthquakes: complete. 1/1 catalog queries. Observations: 2026-10-12T23:20:36.003Z to 2026-10-17T05:06:57.657Z. Requested: 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:15.485Z.
• USGS M4.5+ earthquakes: complete. 1/1 catalog queries. Observations: 2026-10-11T12:13:18.599Z to 2026-10-18T08:00:06.054Z. Requested: 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:15.969Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Northeast (NYC area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.104Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Southeast (Atlanta area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.105Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Midwest (Chicago area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.115Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Mountain West (Denver area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.119Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Pacific (San Francisco area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.128Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: South Plains (Dallas area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.126Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: London: complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.140Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Tokyo: complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.139Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Sydney: complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-18T15:28:16.140Z.