This Week in Weather — October 25, 2026

Rearview

The week's defining story was a sustained severe weather outbreak across the Desert Southwest — a region where tornado warnings are uncommon enough that 23 of them across seven days demands attention.

The convective sequence began October 19, when wind reports clustered along the Arizona-New Mexico border near Cochise and Hidalgo counties. A mesonet station at the Chiricahua Desert Museum recorded 77 mph winds at around 4:40 p.m. local time, and downed power lines closed Portal Road and NM-80 roughly simultaneously. Hail to 1.25 inches fell 18 miles north of Pirtleville, Arizona, that same afternoon.

The system intensified through October 20–21. Hail to 2 inches was reported near Mesa, Arizona, in the early morning hours — quarter-to-golf-ball stones documented by photo near the intersection of AZ Avenue and Elliot in Chandler. By mid-morning October 21, hail to 1.5 inches was falling near Prescott Airport in Yavapai County.

Then came the tornadoes. An EF-1 touched down near Walker, Yavapai County, Arizona, at approximately 7:30 a.m. local time on October 21, cutting an 8-mile path with estimated peak winds of 105 mph. Hours later, a second EF-1 moved north through the Heber-Overgaard area in Navajo County — 11 minutes of contact, 110 mph peak winds, one injury reported. Tornado warnings continued through October 25, with warnings issued for Santa Fe County, New Mexico, as late as 7:01 p.m. local time on October 24.

The full warning count across the seven-day interval: 330 severe thunderstorm warnings, 71 flash flood warnings, 23 tornado warnings, and 45 marine warnings — 469 total. Among the 108 preliminary SPC storm reports, 76 were hail events and 30 were wind events, with Arizona accounting for 72 of the 108 reports and New Mexico for 24.

Geoseismically, October 24 was active. A M7.0 struck the Bonin Islands, Japan region at a depth of 473 km. Within 26 minutes, a M6.9 struck 197 km WNW of Port-Olry, Vanuatu, at a depth of 10 km. A M7.0 in the Nagqu, China region on October 22 (depth 18 km) rounds out a week with eight USGS-significant seismic events and 195 M4.5-or-greater earthquakes globally. These earthquake catalog results do not establish whether tsunami warnings were issued.

USGS / Wikimedia Commons

The geomagnetic environment was quiet relative to the week's other activity. Peak planetary Kp among observed three-hour blocks reached 4.67 — minor storm threshold is Kp 5 — and the most recent readings as of October 25 were at or below Kp 1. An M1.7 solar flare was observed in the available X-ray samples on October 19 at 09:03 UTC. The X-ray record is missing 226 one-minute samples, so this is not a complete-period flare tally. No G-scale geomagnetic storm occurred during the observation window.

---

Roadmap

Point forecasts cover October 25–31 for six U.S. cities and three international locations. The daily forecast values below are grouped by UTC day, which does not match each city's local calendar day. Check a local-time forecast before making day-specific plans.

New York City stays dry through at least October 31, with temperatures climbing from a high of 67°F Sunday to 75°F on October 30 before easing back to 68°F on Halloween. Overnight lows remain in the 40s through mid-week, then rise into the upper 50s by week's end. No precipitation probability exceeds 2%.

Atlanta runs warmer and drier still — highs in the low-to-mid 70s all week, touching 78°F on October 30, with a maximum precipitation probability of 7% on October 31. Overnight lows hold in the low 50s early, rising toward 60°F by the weekend.

Chicago is the most active domestic forecast. The first half of the week is dry, with highs between 58°F and 69°F. Precipitation probability climbs to 15–28% October 29–31, with small accumulations possible — 0.04 to 0.13 inches across those three days. Not a significant rain event at these probabilities, but worth monitoring if you have outdoor plans for Halloween weekend.

Denver shows a fog signal on October 27 (weather code 45) with a high of 68°F, then clears into the upper 60s for the remainder of the week. Precipitation probability stays at or below 23% throughout, with no accumulation forecast on any day.

San Francisco sees a gradual shift toward wetter conditions by week's end. October 25–29 are dry with highs in the low-to-mid 60s. October 31 carries a 34% precipitation probability — the highest in the point forecast — though no accumulation is shown. That probability is a planning signal, not a guarantee.

Dallas runs the warmest of the six domestic points, with highs in the low 80s through October 29 and overnight lows rising to 71°F by that date. A 37% precipitation probability on October 31 accompanies a forecast high of 75°F — the first meaningful cooling of the week.

London opens the week with back-to-back rain days: 100% precipitation probability October 25–26, with 0.22 inches forecast on October 26. Conditions clear substantially by October 28–29 before a cooler, foggy Halloween at 51°F.

Tokyo faces a heavy rain event October 25–26. October 26 carries a 100% precipitation probability and 2.53 inches of forecast accumulation — the largest single-day total in any of the nine city forecasts this week. Conditions clear rapidly by October 27.

Sydney is in Southern Hemisphere spring, with highs swinging from 88°F on October 25 down to 68°F on October 26 following forecast showers. A 0.21-inch rain event is possible October 30.

---

The Takeaway

• If you're in the Phoenix-to-Albuquerque corridor, the past week's convective activity — two confirmed EF-1 tornadoes, 23 tornado warnings, and hail to 2 inches — is a reminder to verify that your severe weather plan covers a region most residents don't associate with tornado risk.
• The October 24 Bonin Islands and Vanuatu earthquakes occurred less than half an hour apart, but at very different depths: 473 km and 10 km, respectively. Consult official tsunami bulletins for any warning history; the earthquake catalog alone does not supply it.
• Chicago's October 29–31 UTC precipitation window (15–28% probability) and San Francisco's October 31 UTC signal (34%) are low enough that neither warrants a plan change today, but both are worth a recheck Thursday with a local-time forecast.

Source coverage

Reporting interval: 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z (end exclusive). Counts and peaks describe only the observations and intervals listed below. Missing data is unknown, never zero. Forecasts are point forecasts for the named cities.

• IEM polygon warnings issued (TO/SV/FF/MA/EW.W only): complete. 1/1 archive queries (unique warning events). Observations: 2026-10-18T20:18:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T06:35:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.314Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-18: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Requested: 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.140Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-19: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-19T21:57:00.000Z to 2026-10-20T03:10:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-19T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.509Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-20: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-21T00:55:00.000Z to 2026-10-21T11:20:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-20T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.586Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-21: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-21T13:45:00.000Z to 2026-10-22T06:30:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-21T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.671Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-22: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-22T12:20:00.000Z to 2026-10-23T04:35:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-22T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.821Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-23: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-23T22:18:00.000Z to 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-23T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.997Z.
• SPC preliminary reports 2026-10-24: complete. 1/1 complete report days. Observations: 2026-10-24T22:38:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T01:10:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-24T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:54.150Z.
• NOAA SWPC planetary Kp: complete. 56/56 three-hour blocks. Observations: 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T09:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.169Z.
• NOAA GOES primary 0.1–0.8 nm X-ray flux: partial. 9854/10080 one-minute samples. Observations: 2026-10-18T15:38:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T11:59:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.178Z. Missing 226 of 10080 expected intervals; peak is only for observed coverage.
• USGS significant (significance > 600) earthquakes: complete. 1/1 catalog queries. Observations: 2026-10-20T04:20:37.000Z to 2026-10-25T02:09:23.818Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:54.194Z.
• USGS M4.5+ earthquakes: complete. 1/1 catalog queries. Observations: 2026-10-18T12:42:22.533Z to 2026-10-25T11:25:57.101Z. Requested: 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-25T12:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:54.116Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Northeast (NYC area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.717Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Southeast (Atlanta area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.727Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Midwest (Chicago area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.388Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Mountain West (Denver area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.390Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Pacific (San Francisco area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.420Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: South Plains (Dallas area): complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.756Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: London: complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.529Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Tokyo: complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.517Z.
• Open-Meteo point forecast: Sydney: complete. 7/7 UTC forecast days. Observations: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-10-31T00:00:00.000Z. Requested: 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z to 2026-11-01T00:00:00.000Z. Checked: 2026-10-25T15:38:53.934Z.