This Week in Weather

Rearview

The week's headline number is 205 tornado warnings — part of a broader count of 2,625 NWS warnings issued across all hazard types between June 8 and June 14. The severe convective signal was unmistakable: 89 confirmed tornadoes, 394 hail reports, and 2,623 wind reports in the SPC storm log, with Illinois alone accounting for 472 total reports.

The most geographically concentrated tornado activity arrived in two distinct rounds on June 14. The first swept through the Ozarks and adjacent Missouri in the pre-dawn hours CDT: Barry County, MO drew back-to-back warnings from the Springfield office at 11:47 p.m. and 11:54 p.m. CDT on June 13 (04:47Z and 04:54Z June 14 UTC), followed by a warning covering Carroll and Madison Counties in Arkansas at 12:24 a.m. CDT. These were not scattered afternoon cells — the timing points to a nocturnal convective system with a functioning low-level jet.

The second round moved northeast into Pennsylvania and Ohio during the afternoon EDT. Portage and Summit Counties in Ohio received a tornado warning at 3:30 p.m. EDT; Jefferson County, PA followed at 4:20 p.m., and Crawford County, PA at 4:25 p.m. — five warnings across three states in under an hour, all from the Cleveland and Pittsburgh offices, consistent with a forward-propagating supercell or organized squall line tracking the mid-Atlantic slope.

Kansas (375 reports) and Missouri (279) rounded out the top five states, reinforcing that the week's convective axis ran along and east of the central Plains — not the Gulf Coast, not the Rockies.

NOAA SPC

On the geophysical side, a M7.8 struck 26 km southwest of Kablalan in the Philippines on June 7 at 7:37 a.m. local time, the largest earthquake globally in the dataset. A separate M6.5 hit 20 km west-southwest of Balangonan, also in the Philippines, and a M6.1 occurred 102 km west-northwest of Mantua, Cuba. Solar activity was negligible: peak Kp of 0, with the week's strongest flare a C9.0 on June 11.

USGS

Roadmap

The dominant synoptic feature shaping the next seven days is a persistent upper-level ridge anchored over the western United States, with a progressive trough pattern across the central and eastern portions of the country. The ridge is keeping Denver's average high near 88°F with essentially no precipitation — 0.01 inches projected for the week, peak probability just 41% on June 20. San Francisco sits firmly under the ridge's western flank: 0.00 inches forecast, 5% peak probability. These numbers are consistent with a strong, positionally stable subtropical ridge that is not expected to break down meaningfully before June 21.

NOAA NESDIS

East of the ridge axis, the story changes sharply. The trough pattern is keeping the jet stream active across the northern tier, and the Chicago area is carrying the week's most aggressive precipitation signal: 1.86 inches projected, with a 90% precipitation probability on June 17. That spike is consistent with a well-organized frontal passage rather than diurnal convection — the probability is too high and too date-specific for scattered afternoon storms. Temperatures average near 70°F for the week, which is below the seasonal norm for mid-June Chicago and confirms that the post-frontal airmass will be cool and modified rather than humid and unstable. Severe weather potential is possible ahead of the front on June 16–17, particularly if residual Gulf moisture can stream northward before the boundary arrives.

The Northeast follows a similar sequence on a slightly earlier timeline. New York City carries an 80% precipitation probability on June 15 — Sunday — with an average high of 83°F for the week. A 1.03-inch weekly total is moderate but not exceptional; the June 15 peak suggests a frontal or pre-frontal band rather than a slow-moving system. Behind it, the week likely turns drier and more comfortable.

The Southeast sees its main precipitation event later in the week — Atlanta's peak probability is 70% on June 19, with 1.81 inches total projected. This timing fits a secondary disturbance riding the southern branch of the jet or an enhanced sea-breeze/frontal interaction as the main trough lifts out. The South Plains (Dallas) average high of 89°F with only 0.88 inches and a 45% peak on June 19 suggests the region sits on the drier western fringe of whatever moisture axis feeds the Southeast event.

Internationally, London is forecast to average 79°F — well above the June climatological mean of roughly 66–68°F — pointing to a continued warm anomaly over northwestern Europe that has persisted for multiple weeks.

Heads Up

• The June 17 Chicago-area system carries a 90% precipitation probability, the week's highest single-day figure — if you have outdoor commitments in the Upper Midwest that day, treat it as a near-certain rain event and plan around it.
• Tornado-warned convection tracked from the Missouri Ozarks into western Pennsylvania on June 14; the same synoptic corridor remains active this week, and the June 15–17 frontal sequence should be monitored for severe potential ahead of the boundary.
• The M7.8 near Kablalan, Philippines on June 7 occurred in one of the western Pacific's most seismically active subduction zones — aftershock sequences from events of this magnitude routinely include M6+ follow-ons for weeks, and the M6.5 near Balangonan later in the week may be part of that sequence.